考虑到经济产业结构调整和用水效率控制对社会水循环过程调控的重要性，以江苏沿海开发区域内的盐城市为研究区，根据其社会经济现状与发展计划、水资源开发利用战略与目标、节水型社会建设规划方案等实际情况，采用水资源利用驱动因素分析法和数学规划解析法相结合的手段，建立了纳入驱动因素分解效应量化值的非线性规划模型，计算了2010-2015年研究区基于用水总量控制的社会经济发展规模、产业结构比例及其用水效率的合理方案。最后，根据计算成果，分析了研究区产业结构、用水定额、经济水平与人口规模四个因素对区域用水总量变化的影响。%In consideration of t he significance of industrial structure adjustment and w ater use efficiency control to the H ydroso-cial-Cycle, and taking Yancheng City, a typical region in Jiangsu Coastal District as case study region, a nonlinear programming model was set up by using Logarit hmic Mean Divisia Index approach and mathematical programming method, w hich contains constraint of total water-use quant ity limit and quantization equations of driving factors decomposition effect. T he analyt ic model took full account of socio-economic development present situation and plan, water resources ut ilization strategy and target, sav-ing-water society construction planning. During 2010 to 2015, the rat ional scheme on Yancheng City's socio-economic develop-ment size, industrial structure proportion and water resources ut ilization efficiency was achieved by solving model. According to our comput ation results, the characteristic of driving fact ors effects from intensit y of w ater utilization, industrial structure, eco-nomic development level and populat ion scale w ere analyzed, as w ell as the adjustment policy of the primary industry, secondary industry and tert iary industry.
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