人口年龄结构变动给中国出口比较优势动态演变带来了机遇。本文首先利用显示性比较优势指数、 Michaely 指数和净出口率指数衡量中国2000－2013年27个制造业行业的出口比较优势，发现现阶段中国出口比较优势仍然以劳动密集型商品为主，但出口比较优势开始向资本密集型商品转移。其次，分别利用三种人口老龄化和少子化指标对二者关系进行实证检验，发现无论是从生产还是消费角度来说，人口老龄化程度加剧提高了劳动密集型商品的相对价格，有利于资本密集型商品出口比较优势提升；如果只考虑出口，少儿人口比重下降对资本密集型商品的显示性比较优势有利，但对同时考虑进口和出口的 Michaely 指数和净出口率指数不利。此外，还发现外资流入和能源依赖度提高对行业RCA指数有利，全要素生产率和人力资本提高对Michaely 指数有利。%The changing of demographic age structure brings opportunity to China export comparative advantage. The revealed comparative advantage index , Michaely index and net export rate index are used to measure the export comparative advantage of 27 industries in China from 2000 to 2013 , and it is found that Chinese export comparative advantage is still mainly based on labor-intensive industries, but begins to move to capital-intensive industries. The test of three population aging indexes and three low birth rate indexes empirically finds that the rising aging increased China's labor-intensive costs but helped to raise the comparative advantage of capital-intensive goods'export considering both consumption and production. Meanwhile the low birth rate and decrease of young population benefit the capital-intensive industries' RCA index , but negative to Michaely index and net export rate index. FDI and the rising of energy dependency are favor of industries' RCA index, the progress of TFP and human capital are helpful to improve Michaely index.
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