Research on the Influencing Factors of China's Manufacturing Export Growth from the Perspective of Four-Dimensional Dynamic Decomposition Taking twenty-four EU economies as an example

摘要

Based on the perspective of four-dimensional dynamic decomposition, this thesis uses data on manufacturing products exported from China to the EU from 1996 to 2019, and constructs models from countries, products, and external environmental impacts to conduct empirical analysis of influencing factors. From the empirical results, the following conclusions can be drawn: (1) China's manufacturing exports are more sensitive to price changes triggered by exchange rate changes, and the per capita GDP reflecting the demand structure has a more significant impact than the GDP reflecting the total demand; (2) differentiated products have a relatively stable performance in Survival and Exit dimensions, while the data performance of medium and high-tech products in different dimensions has once again exposed the fact that the overall technological level of my country's manufacturing exports is currently low; (3) trade liberalization obviously has a positive effect on China's manufacturing exports, and the impact and uncertainty brought about by the deterioration of the external economic environment also have significant negative effects, which may have a certain degree of sustainability.