基于应变能分析南北地震带中段地震活动对华东地区的影响

摘要

通过分析南北地震带中段和华东地区的地震应变能释放,定量分析两者之间的相互影响,为华东地区地震预报提供较为可信的预报参考.计算结果显示,华东地区受南北地震带中段强震影响较大,预报效能R=0.453(大于97.5%的置信度R0),预报尺度在1~3年左右.%By analyzing the strain energy release of the middle part of north-south seismic belt and eastern China, the paper quantitatively analyzed the interaction between them, which can help provide reference to the earthquake prediction of eastern China. The results show that the middle part of north-south seismic belt has strong earthquake activity, which has great influence on eastern China, the prediction efficiency is greater than the confidence (R=0.453>R 0), the forecast scale is about 1~3 years.