吸引外资能促进对外投资吗--基于新兴经济体的面板数据分析

摘要

随着经济全球化的深入推进，发展中国家吸引外资和对外投资呈现出了双双增长的态势，那么，吸引外资与对外投资之间的互动关系是什么？吸引外资能促进发展中国家的对外投资吗？这是我们关注的重点问题。本文以投资发展周期理论（IDP）为基础，分析了吸引外资促进对外投资的内在机制，并运用14个新兴经济体1980－2013年的面板数据进行了实证检验，结果表明：吸引外资能显著地促进东道国的对外投资；并且吸引外资对东道国对外投资促进作用的大小与东道国的特征密切相关：人力资本存量越丰裕、市场规模越大、市场关联程度越高，越有利于吸引外资对对外投资的促进作用。这一结果对发展中国家制定开放战略具有重要的参考价值。%With the deep development of world economy's globalization and intergradation,Inward foreign direct investment and outward foreign direct investment of developing countries are all both growth,then,what is interaction of inward foreign direct investment and outward foreign direct investment?Can inward foreign direct investment promote outward foreign direct investment of developing countries?That is the focus of our concern. We analyze the internal mechanism of inward foreign direct investment promoting outward foreign direct investment by the basis of Investment Development Path Theory,and carry out the empirical test by using 14 emerging economies panel data from 1980 to 2013,the results showed that inward foreign direct investment can significantly promote the host's outward foreign direct investment, and the sizes of inward foreign direct investment promoting outward foreign direct investment are closely related with host country features:the more abundant human capital,the more big market size,the more high market relevance,the better inward foreign direct investment promoting outward foreign direct investment. The result has great value for developing countries to formulate open strategy.