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从后凯恩斯主义货币内生理论谈货币政策的出路

     

摘要

Based on post -Keynesian endogenous money theory,the study brings together about the“neutrality”and “non -neutrality”of money and “endogeneity”and “exogeneity”of money under one structure in order to explore an endogenous logic of operation of monetary policy.Adopting from the first quarter of 2001 to the third quarter of 2013,by constructing simultaneous equation model and co -integration analysis,and using systematic estimation method,the study analyze the short -run and long -run effect of monetary policy and the origin of endogenous money creation process.The empirical results show that,M2 is neutral to nominal GDP growth both in the short -run and the long-run;M2 strengthens the vibration of CPI in the short -run but in the long -run,no common trend is obvious;deposit has the same long -run trend with M2 and in the short -run,the significant positive relationship between them can't be changed when control variables are added and structure break are considered;loan and deposit share a common trend in the long run and the explanatory power of loan to deposit is significant and stable in the short term.The four conclusions above can give some suggestions to monetary authorities.%文章以后凯恩斯主义货币内生论为理论依据,将货币“中性”与“非中性”之争和“内生”与“外生”之争纳入到一个框架下进行研究,以探求货币政策操作的“内生”逻辑。采用我国2001年第1季度至2013年第3季度的季度数据,构建联立方程模型,运用协整检验和系统估计方法分别考察货币政策操作的短期和长期效果以及货币内生创造机制的根源。实证结果表明,M2对名义 GDP 增长短期和长期均呈现中性;M2短期内会加剧 CPI 的波动率,但长期内和 CPI 增长率没有共同的趋势;存款与 M2有共同的长期趋势,短期内二者呈现显著的正相关性而且显著性不会随着结构变化、滞后项和控制变量的加入而减弱;贷款与存款之间也存在长期的共同趋势,短期内贷款对存款的解释力度是高度显著且稳定的。以上四点主要结论对我国货币当局制定货币政策提供了重要的指导意义。

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