Dynamical succession of typical riparian forests and ecological footprint of species replacement were analyzed using the Markov model to research structure and function of existing communities in 33 typical riparian plots in Wenyu watershed upstream. Results showed that the change rate of pioneer species P. cathayana was the largest and it was quickly replaced by other species after improvement of lighting conditions and microclimate in the community succession process ; the quantity of B. albo-sinensis and B. platyphyUa were the largest during 40-80 year and quantity peak of Larix gmelinii appeared in 120-160 year while Picea asperata quantity was in growth condition with the time until 600 years ; the forest mainly consisted of Larix gmelinii and Picea asperata with the proportion of 50% respectively ; the riparian forest would develop to the climax community (spruce stands) after 600 years and plenty of realized communities in Wenyu watershed upstream were the pioneer and transitional period at 40-80 year scale. The study would be foundation for the mechanism of riparian dynamical succession and serve the ecosystem management of riparian forest buffer zone.%笔者通过在文峪河上游选取典型河岸林群落样地33块，采用Markov线性模型模拟预测河岸林群落的动态演替过程，分析群落乔木物种替代的轨迹变化，阐明现实林分组成的结构和功能特性。研究结果表明：1）在演替过程中，以先锋树种青杨的变化速率最大，在完成林地光照条件及小气候的改善后，迅速被其它树种排挤。2）红桦和白桦在40a-80a间林分数量达到最高点；落叶松林分数量最高点出现在120a-160a间，以后几百年逐步退化减少。云杉林分数量随时间延长处于增长状态，在600a内未达到生长顶峰。3）落叶松和云杉林二者数量在230a左右时约为10株，林分以落叶松和云杉林为主，比例各占50％．4）文峪河上游大部分河岸林群落以白桦和红桦林为主，处于40a～80a间演替阶段。经过600多年的森林演替，文峪河上游河岸林群落最终将发展成为以云杉林为主的顶级群落。该研究将为分析阐明河岸林动态演替的动力学机制提供指导，同时服务于河岸林缓冲带生态系统管理。
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