基于 Logit 模型的农村灾后应急运输方式选择模型

摘要

Based on the basic theory of the multinomial Logit model to construct the rural post-disaster emergency transportation mode choice model. Using the SAS statistical software to multiple linear regression data processing, get the multinomial Logit model parameter estimates. In the transportation mode choice model is established on the basis of the structure to solve the problem of virtual transportation network, calculation and analysis for an example. The results show that the probability of multinomial Logit model rural disaster emergency logistics transportation mode selection is reasonable and effective.%基于多项Logit模型的基本理论构建了农村灾后应急运输方式选择模型，运用SAS数理统计软件对数据进行了多元线性回归处理，得到了多项Logit模型参数估计值，在建立运输方式选择模型的基础上，构造了求解该问题的虚拟运输网络，并进行了算例计算与分析，结果表明，应用多项Logit概率模型进行农村灾害应急物流运输方式选择是合理有效的。