专家意见的模糊集成方法

摘要

The Delphi method is commonly used in appraisement. The core of the method is to put in the different opinions from different experts integration as a comprehensive evaluation result. Due to their cognitive differences, different experts may give judgments very differently. Therefore, the reliability of integrated evaluation will greatly rely on the scientificity of the aggregating method. Based on the analysis of the deficiencies of existing aggregating methods, this paper puts forward a new method. Numerical example shows that the new method presented in this paper can improve aggregating result significantly.%德尔菲法是评价工作中常用的方法,其中核心的问题是把不同专家的意见集成为一个综合的评价结果.不同的专家由于其对评价对象认知等方面的差异可能会给出不同的判断,这些判断值的差异有时可能非常明显,集成方法的科学性,对专家意见集成结果的可靠性具有很大影响.本文在分析现有集成方法不足的基础上,提出了对现有方法改进的新方法.数例分析表明,这样的改进对专家意见集成结果有明显的影响.