基于传染病模型的口碑传播预测

摘要

In the marketing field, early in the last century, the theory of word-of-mouth marketing was carried out by some scholars, it is consumer oriented, an effect of consumer spontaneous publicity enterprise product. How to efficient use the value of marketing, many academics study have done before, but the main research contents focus on the same number of people in consumption circle of the communication predict effect, and the word-of-mouth marketing pure theory. Lacking the analysis of dynamic changes in the population.This paper focused on the phenomenon of consumer move out of such a dynamic circle. Use the differential equation model method, to do a simple prediction about consumer reputation effect. This paper studies the actual life of the marketing investment has a certain reference value%　　早在上个世纪五六十年代就有人提出过口碑营销的概念，这是一种以消费者自己为导向自发宣传企业产品的一种效应。多年来，关于如何高效地利用口碑营销价值的问题得到了众多学者的关注，但主要研究内容都侧重于不变数目人群消费圈子的传播效应预测，以及口碑营销的纯理论研究机制，缺乏对动态人数变化的分析。故本文侧重于对消费移出者这样一种动态趋势的口碑营销现象进行研究，采用微分方程模型的方法，对消费者口碑效应做一个简单地预测。本文的研究对实际生活中的营销投入有一定的参考借鉴价值。