基于灰色系统理论的山东省农业产业结构优化研究

摘要

Based on gray system theory , the correlation analysis of gross output of agriculture with the output of its 5 departments in Shandong Province were conducted taking the statistic data from 2003 to 2012 as research object, and their development in the next five years was predicted by GM (1,1) model.The predic-ted values were also analyzed by gray correlation analysis .The differences in correlation degree between pre-dicted and practiced values were analyzed , and also the causes .Finally, some proposals were put forward:the existing advantages of planting industry , animal husbandry and fishery industry should be constantly played ;the forestry development should be sped up by adjusting measures to local conditions ;the support to agricultur-al producer service industry should be strengthened .%基于灰色系统理论，选取2003～2012年的统计数据为研究对象，对山东省农业生产总值与各农业生产部门产值进行关联分析，并运用GM（1，1）模型预测山东省农业总产值及各部门产值未来5年的发展情况；同时也对相关预测值进行灰关联分析，比较实际数据的关联度与预测值关联度的异同，深入分析其发生变化的原因；提出不断发挥种植业、牧业、渔业的已有优势，因地制宜加快林业发展，加强对农业生产性服务业的扶持力度等几点建议。