延河流域明清时期旱涝灾害时空变化规律研究

摘要

通过搜集和整理延河流域明清时期（1371～1910年）大量的历史文献资料，对该流域旱涝灾害的时空变化规律进行了研究。结果表明，在明清时期540年中，延河流域共发生旱灾108次、涝灾48次。其中，轻度和中度旱灾、重度涝灾发生频次较多；旱灾多发生在春季，而涝灾多发生在夏季；旱涝灾害在延河流域东南部发生比较多。另外，采用小波分析得出，延河流域明清时期旱涝灾害具有明显的周期变化，并与太阳活动周期有着密切的联系。而且延河流域明清时期旱涝灾害的发生与我国气候的冷暖变化、西北地区旱涝灾害的阶段性以及西部地区降水的年际变化特点表现出了良好的同步性与一致性。本研究结果对于认识延河流域旱涝灾害的时空变化规律、提高黄土高原北部地区防灾预警能力以及进一步完善黄河流域旱涝灾害数据统计具有重要的指导意义。%Based on the historical data in Yanhe basin during the Ming and Qing Dynasties ( 1371 ~1910a), the temporal and spatial variation rules of drought and flood disasters were studied in this paper.The results showed that during the 540 years of the Ming and Qing Dynasties, the droughts happened 108 times and the floods happened 48 times in Yanhe basin.The mild and middle droughts and severe flood happened more than other disasters.The droughts mostly happened in spring, and the floods mostly happened in summer.The droughts and floods happened in the southeast of Yanhe basin were the most.Moreover, it was found that the drought and flood disasters of Yanhe basin showed obvious periodic variation by wavelet analysis during the 540 years, and it was closely associated with the solar active period.And the occurrence rule of drought and flood disasters in Yanhe basin had obvious relevance with those in the Northwest China, the climate changes in temperature in China and the interannual change of precipitation in the Western China during the same period. These results had important guiding significance on learning the temporal and spatial variation rules of drought and flood disasters in Yanhe basin, improving disaster prevention and early warning capability in the northern of Loess Plateau, and further perfecting flood and drought disaster data statistics in the Yellow River.