基于可计算一般均衡模型的全球能源互联网经济社会效益分析

摘要

发展全球能源互联网将对世界各经济体产生不同程度的影响,各主体受益程度构成了其应对该战略的重要基础.针对当前全球能源互联网评估研究偏重技术经济分析而弱于宏观经济影响研究的现状,分析了全球能源互联网对送、受端地区的经济社会影响路径,建立了经济社会效益评估指标体系;基于多国多部门动态可计算一般均衡模型,开展了各洲经济社会效益定量分析.模拟结果显示,全球能源互联网构建有利于全球经济增长,但不同国家或地区受益程度出现差异,非洲等送端地区将成为最大受益方.%The development of global energy internet will have different effects on the various economic entities in the world.The benefit level of each entity is important for its response to the strategy.In view of the current research on global energy Internet which is weight-ed heavily toward technical and economic analysis and is weak in macro-economic research,the economic and social impact of global energy Internet is analyzed,and evaluation index system is established.Based on multi-countries and multi-sector dynamic computable general equilibrium model,the quantitative economic and social benefits of global energy Internet in different continent are analyzed. The simulation results show that the construction of global energy Internet is conducive to global economic growth,but the benefit level of different regions is different.The sending-side areas such as Africa will become the biggest benefiters.