GM(1,1)-Markov模型在地震应急基础数据更新中的应用

摘要

受灾地区的国民生产总值(GDP)数据是地震应急基础数据库中一类重要的基础数据,由于数据收集的周期较长,造成GDP数据的现势性差.利用灰色一马尔可夫模型(GM(1,1 )-Markov 模型),建立甘肃省县一级GDP增长模型,实现静态GDP基础数据在地震发生时的动态计算,使其接近于社会经济发展的实际情况；在实际数据未得到之前,本研究中得到的GDP数据可以作为应急数据库中相关基础数据更新的补充手段,或作为未来几年震害预测时的基础数据参考.%GDP in the disaster area of earthquake event is a fundamental and significant data in earthquake emergency basic database. Because of the long period and big investment for data collection and up-to-date state, a county level of GDP growth model of Gansu Province was set up by means of GM(1,1)-Markov model, and dynamic calculation was operated based on static data to better fit the actual situation. Before the real materials was obtained, the forecasting data achieved in this paper could be considered as not only the supplementary means for data updating in earthquake emergency basic database, but also a basic reference for earthquake damage prediction in future years.