农民人均纯收入与农业生产结构的关系研究

摘要

Based on the macro data since the reform and opening‐up ,this paper uses SVAR model to conduct impulse response analysis and variance analysis .The results showed that there is a long‐term stable equilibrium relationship between the per capita net income of farmers and the index of agricultural production structure , agriculture (farming) output value has the biggest effect on per capita net income of farmers ,per capita net income of farmers has a certain lag in response to the change of agricultural production structure .Therefore ,in order to cope with problems ,measures are proposed in the paper such as change the concept of development ,develop agriculture with industrial model ,promote the reform of industry ,optimize the structure of agricultural production and make adjustment of industrial policy so that to boost farmers'per capita net income growth momentum .%基于改革开放以来的宏观数据，运用SVAR模型主要进行脉冲响应分析、方差分析。结果显示，农民人均纯收入与农业生产结构的几个指标之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系，农业（种植业）产值对农民人均纯收入的影响最大，农民人均纯收入对农业生产结构变动的响应具有一定的滞后性。因此，提出转变发展思想，以工业的形式发展农业；推进产业改革，调优农业生产结构；调整产业政策，增添农民人均纯收入增长动力。