[目的]评估油菜花期降水适宜度变化及气候风险.[方法]应用气候倾向率确定油菜花期降水适宜度变化趋势;根据降水适宜度与油菜气象产量的关系,应用Beta分布评估油菜花期湿害气候风险.[结果]浙江省油菜花期降水适宜度总体呈现正效应,适宜度以平均0.0075/10a的速度上升,浙江省油菜花期湿害呈现减弱趋势;油菜成灾年、歉收年的降水适宜度风险概率空间分布呈现西南向东北逐渐降低,增产年的风险概率由西南向东北逐渐增高.[结论]气候变化使油菜花期降水适宜度偏好、风险降低,总体上有利于浙江省油菜生产.%[Objective] The objective of the research was to study the changes of precipitation suitability and yield loss risk of cole at flowering period. [ Method ] Changes of precipitation suitability of cole at flowering period were calculated by using climate trend rate. Based on relationship of precipitation suitability and cole yield, yield loss risk was assessed based on Beta distribution model. [Result] Precipitation suitability of cole at flowering period is positive, suitability was increased at the average rate of 0.0075/10a, waterlogging in cole flowering period in Zhejiang showed signs of abating. In bad harvest year, risk probability of precipitation suitability spatial distribution showed a decrease from southwest to northeast, and in good harvest year, it showed a increase from southwest to northeast. [Conclusion] The change of climate made precipitation suitability increased and risk decreased, which is of benefit to the increase of the cole yield.
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