交通基础设施投资与经济增长的动态效应分析——基于VAR模型的实证研究

摘要

从多因素共生角度出发,将Solow模型中的资本进行分解,即交通基础设施资本投入、其他基础设施资本投入、非基础设施资本投入.利用1978-2009年的各种资本投入与经济增长情况的年度数据,构建反映交通基础设施投资与经济增长的动态关系VAR(向量自回归)模型,并把其他基础设施资本投入、非基础设施资本投入纳入研究框架与模型中,运用脉冲响应函数和方差分解分析交通基础设施投资与经济增长的动态效应.结果表明,交通基础设施投资与经济增长之间保持着长期稳定的均衡关系,交通基础设施投资的变动趋势比经济增长更加敏感,并受经济增长的影响远远大于交通基础设施投资对经济增长的影响.与其他基础设施资本投入和非基础设施资本投入相比,交通基础设施投资对经济增长的贡献度逐年增加并持久.因此,交通基础设施投资相对中国经济增长乃至整个经济系统来讲应视为内生变量.%This paper uses the annual data of transport infrastructure investment and GDP from 1978 to 2009, constructs VAR model of dynamic relations that reflects the relationship between transport infrastructure investment and economic development. On the basis of the model, it analyzes the dynamic effects of the relationship between them by the pulse response function and the variance decomposition. The results show that there is a long - term stability equilibrium relationship between transport infrastructure investment and GDP. Compared with other infrastructure capital investment and non -infrastructure capital investment, the contribution of transport infrastructure investment to economic growth is increasing year by year, which shall be regarded as endogenous variable in the whole economic system.