国际航空航天产品贸易格局（2002－2012年）实证研究--基于社会网络分析的视角

摘要

Based on the bilateral trade data in the aviation and aerospace industry among the 50 important economies every year during 2002—2012,the paper studies the international product trade pattern in aviation and aerospace by the method of social network analysis.The results show that the trade network gets gradually denser,and more and more economies construct two -way trade relationships between each other.France,USA,Germany and Canada are the hubs of the trade networks,however their control forces are on the decline.Meanwhile,emerging economies have advanced,such as China and Brazil.The economic crisis since 2008 has an impact on the trade network,especially developed countries.However, depending on the stable trade volume,particularly trade value between them,France and Germany grow into the absolute core of the trade network.Although China has achieved the promotion of the trade status,it should still develop the key technologies and products with independent property rights in the aviation and aerospace industry,and hence reduce the ra-tio of dependence on import.In addition,in the research on the trade network,the method of social network analysis should be integrated with the connotation of network indices and the original trade data.%采用2002—2012年历年50个重要经济体间的航空航天产品双边贸易数据，运用社会网络分析对国际航空航天产品贸易格局进行实证研究。结果显示，总体而言，贸易网络逐渐稠密，越来越多的经济体间建立起双向贸易关系。法国、美国、德国和加拿大是国际贸易网络的枢纽，但控制力在下降；以中国和巴西为代表的新兴国家贸易地位得到提升。2008年的经济危机对贸易网络尤其是发达国家产生一定冲击，不过法国和德国凭借稳定的贸易量尤其是双边贸易额，成为贸易网络中的绝对核心。中国尽管贸易地位得到提升，但应发展具有自主产权的航空航天关键技术和产品，降低进口依存度。此外，社会网络分析方法用于贸易网络研究时，应将指标内涵与贸易关系特征以及原始贸易数据有机结合起来。