东北老工业基地工业行业碳排放影响因素研究

摘要

Based on the data of 37 industry output and energy consumption in l8 cities of the northeast old industrial base, the LMDI decomposition model of 4 factors is used to carry out empirical analysis on carbon emissions change.The results show that in northeast old industrial base industry overall carbon emissions are still in the rising trend,but the industry gross carbon intensity has obvious downward trend;the energy intensity shows a trend of decline;industrial energy con-sumption is priority to coal consumption.Increasing industry scale of the northeast old industrial base is the pull factors of carbon emissions in the old industrial base.Industry structure and industry energy intensity are transformed from the pull factors in early stage to inhibitory factors in later stage.Industry energy structure is the pull factors of increasing industrial enterprise carbon emissions .%以东北老工业基地2006—2012年18个地级城市37个工业行业总产值和能源消耗等数据为基础，利用LMDI 四因素分解模型对其工业行业碳排放量变化的影响因素进行实证分析。结果表明，东北老工业基地工业行业碳排放总量整体上仍显上升趋势，但行业总值碳排放强度呈明显的下降趋势，能源强度呈现下降趋势，在工业能源消费中还是以煤炭消费为主。东北老工业基地工业行业规模增加是老工业基地工业企业碳排放增加的拉动因素，行业结构和行业能源强度由初期的拉动因素转为后期的抑制因素，行业能源结构是工业企业碳排放增加的拉动因素。