中成药大品种科技投入对科技产出影响的时效分析

摘要

从万方数据库搜集48个典型中成药品种2002－2010年科技投入项目数及论文综合影响因子，通过分析不同滞后年度下科技投入与论文产出指标间的相关系数，判断科技投入的起效时间。剔除16个相关系数很小甚至为负的品种后，剩余32个品种中有10个品种的科技投入当年起效，其余22个品种存在不同程度的滞后。提出的时效分析方法可量化评估科技投入起效的迟滞时间，为科技项目管理与评估提供考核参数，有助于客观有效地评估与管理科技项目。%The Science &Technology (S&T)projects and the comprehensive impact factor of the papers about 48 varieties of typical Traditional Chinese Medicines (TCMs),which were published in 2002 -201 0,were collected from WANFANG database.By analyzing the correlation coefficient between the S&T projects in different lag years and the output index,the onset time of S&T input was evaluated.Among the 32 varieties of TCMthat excluded 1 6 varieties of small and negative cor-relative coefficients,S&T worked for 1 0 varieties of TCMs in the same year and worked delay in different degrees for other 22 varieties of TCMs.The average lag year and the variance of the lag year were 2.88 and 6.1 8,respectively.The pro-posed method for determining lag time of S&T project could quantitatively evaluate the lag year of S&T input,which could provide assessment parameters for the management and evaluation of S&T projects.It is beneficial for evaluating and man-aging S&T projects more objectively and effectively.