碳结构变动对产业系统碳生产率的影响--基于 Laspeyres 分解模型的经验分析

摘要

Using the Laspeyres index decomposition technology,this paper examines the influence on the change of China’ s industrial system carbon productivity during the period 2000 -201 2.Research results show that the low -carbon technol-ogy progress has a positive impact on the carbon productivity growth,while the structure bonus caused by the transfer of car-bon space resource is non -significant.In terms of development tendency,the contribution value of low -carbon technolog-ical progress is reducing step by step,rather,this of structure optimization is increasing.Therefore,if the technology is saturated,the market mechanism should be considered to realize industrial system low -carbon development.%运用 Laspeyres 分解技术对我国产业系统碳生产率变动进行解析，以2000—2012为样本期，定量研究了产业系统碳生产率变动的影响因素，并从行业角度对碳生产率增长进行分析。结果表明，碳生产率增长主导因素是低碳技术进步，而碳排放空间流动的结构红利还不明显；就变动趋势而言，技术进步的贡献值在逐步降低，而结构优化贡献值逐渐上升。考虑到这一趋势，假设在技术出现饱和的情况下可以通过市场机制实现产业系统的低碳化发展。