上海农业技术进步的路径——改革开放以来的观察与实证研究

摘要

The paper analyzes the general situation of agricultural technological progress in Shanghai.Since the reform and opening up in China,the agricultural machinery and equipment sector in Shanghai has gone through the transformation with three stages,and technological progress in machinery makes machinery and equipment becoming larger,more integrated,and more complementary,in order to meet the demand of agriculture on an optimum scale.The progress in agricultural biochemistry has changed the production structure of crop farming,while enhancing the level of land saving and intensive use.By depicting growth path of agricultural labor productivity,it can be seen that the growth path of agriculture in Shanghai shows an "S" curve.The agricultural technological progress follows the evolution path of "labor saving-stagnancy-land saving (major) + labor saving (minor).Then,a multivariable linear regression model with double-logarithm is established,and the fixed effect is analyzed by using panel data of Shanghai suburban counties from 1990-1999 and 2001-2014.The result of empirical analysis supports the relevant conclusions.The paper proposes the corresponding policy suggestions regarding to the results of the empirical analysis.%分析上海农业技术进步的情况总结得出,改革开放以来上海农用机械装备经历了3个阶段的转变,机械技术的进步使农机设备呈现大型化、综合化、配套化的趋势,以满足农业适度规模经营的需要;农业生化技术的进步在提升土地节约集约利用水平的同时改变了种植业的生产结构.通过对农业劳动生产率增长路径的刻画发现,上海农业呈现“S型”的增长路径,农业技术进步因循了“劳动节约型-停滞-土地节约型(主)+劳动节约型(辅)”的演进路径.进而构建双对数形式的多元线性回归模型,利用1990-1999年、2001-2014年上海郊区县的面板数据进行固定效应分析,实证结果支持相关论断.根据实证结果,提出相应的政策建议.