科技创新、金融发展与产业结构升级——基于贝叶斯分位数回归的分析

摘要

In the "new normal" of economy,it is an urgent study that how to promote the upgrading of industrial structure.Taking the time series data 1985-2014 China as samples,using Bayesian quantile method,the paper analyzes the relationship between technological innovation,financial development and industrial structure upgrading.The conclusion is as follows:technological innovation and financial development can promote the upgrading of industrial structure;however,they have imposed different effects on enhancing the degree of upgrading industrial structure:the degree of scientific and technological innovation improving the upgrading the industrial structure is less than that of financial development;the financial development imposes greater effects on the upgrading of industrial structure;the impact of technological innovation on industrial upgrading shows the inverted "U" shaped relationship,and its influence on upgrading the industrial structure is not obvious.The paper proposed the implementation of the innovation and development mode of "big data,networking,intelligent" to promote the financial supply-side reform and speed up the technological development of the financial proposals.%以中国1985-2014年的时间序列数据为样本,运用贝叶斯分位数方法实证分析科技创新、金融发展与产业结构升级的关系.研究结论为:科技创新和金融发展均能促进产业结构升级,但是二者对产业结构升级的提升程度存在差异,科技创新对产业结构升级的提升程度小于金融发展,金融发展水平的提高对产业结构升级的提升作用较大,而科技创新对产业结构升级的影响呈现出倒“U”型关系且对产业结构升级的提升作用不明显.提出推行“大数据、网络化、智能化”的创新发展模式,以及推动金融供给侧改革和加快科技金融发展等建议.