现代信息技术服务业嵌入与制造业转型升级——基于VAR模型分析

摘要

目前制造业的国际分工格局正在发生深刻变化,美德等工业强国纷纷制定以智能制造为核心的再工业化战略,我国制造业面临发达国家高端制造回流以及中低端制造向东南亚国家转移的“双向挤压”,加快我国制造业转型升级、提升全球竞争力已迫在眉睫.以现代信息技术服务业和制造业为内生变量,选取我国2002-2015年时间序列数据建立一阶差分VAR模型,运用协整检验、脉冲响应函数、方差分解等工具分析现代信息技术服务业与制造业之间的融合促进关系,结果表明二者之间存在长期均衡关系并且出现了一定程度的融合互动发展,现代信息技术服务业已经成为制造业转型升级的助推器.%Currently the manufacturing international division of labor pattern is undergoing profound changes.The United States,Germany and other industrial powers have established industrialization strategies which choose intelligent manufacturing as the core to revive manufacturing industry.At the same time,Chinese manufacturing industry is facing the "two-way extrusion":high-end manufacturing going back to developed countries and low-end manufacturing transferring to southeast Asian countries.Under the severe situation,speeding up the transformation and upgrading and promoting global competitiveness of our country's manufacturing is imminent.This article selects modern information technology service industry and manufacturing industry in China as endogenous variables,establishes a VAR model based on the series data from 2002-2015,and uses co-integration test and impulse response function and variance decomposition method to deeply analyze the integration promotion between the two industries.The results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between modern information technology service industry and manufacturing industry;a certain degree of interaction exists between the two;the modem information technology service industry has become the upgrading booster of manufacturing industry's transformation.