采伐制度的制定与林农采伐行为的博弈分析

摘要

运用博弈论的方法对森林采伐制度的制定和林农采伐行为进行分析,从而解释我国森林采伐制度制定的历史必然性;同时通过无限次重复博弈的分析得出改善林业管理制度的办法是：①引导林农的长期投资;②选择性地放开森林采伐限额管制;③林业政策的制定要遵循稳定性、连贯性的原则。%The article uses the game theory to analyze how the forestry cutting system to be formulated and the farmers＇ cutting behavior to be chosen in history, and also confirm its necessity. Then the article uses Nash Equilibrium of infinitely repeated gambling to work out the solutions. Firstly, the government must eneourage farmers to carry on the stable long-term investment. Secondly, open the forest harvesting quota control selectively. Thirdly, the principle of forestry policy＇s formulation must be stable and coherent.