地方政府R＆D投入与经济增长滞后效应的灰色关联分析——来自上海1999—2010年的经验数据

摘要

This paper takes GDP from 1999 to 2010 in Shanghai as the benchmarks of grey relational analysis and R&D expenditures as compara tive indicators. Their gray relative relations in different lag step are calculated. The results show that R&D investment of Shanghai has obvious effect on economic growth within the first 5 years. After that, as the lag year extension, this leading role shows a downward trend.%以上海市1999-2010年的GDP指标作为灰色关联分析的基准指标，以R＆D投入作为对比分析指标，计算它们在不同滞后步长上的灰色相对关联度，以最大灰色关联度值对应的滞后步长作为Rb-D带动GDP增长的时间差，从而测算滞后效应。结果表明，上海市R＆D投入对经济增长的带动作用明显，但随着滞后年份的延长这种带动作用呈快速下降趋势，具有明显趋利性。