基于多元回归模型的镇江外贸转型升级影响因素的实证分析

摘要

文章首先对外贸转型升级的内涵及影响因素进行了分析界定。在Eviews（计量经济学软件包）中采用回归分析法对镇江外贸转型升级的影响因素进行了实证分析。结果发现，产业结构对镇江外贸转型升级推动作用明显，而资本投入和实际利用外资贡献不足，技术进步的作用亦不显著，从而进一步提出加快镇江外贸转型升级的对策建议。%This paper defines and analyzes the connotation and influencing factors of transformation and upgrading of foreign trade. Then,using re- gression analysis in Eviews （econometric package）does an empirical analysis of influencing factors of the transformation and upgrading of Zhen- jiang＇s foreign trade. The results showed that Industrial structure contributes much to the transformation and upgrading of Zhenjiang＇ foreign trade, but capital investment and foreign direct investment don＇t contribute much to the transformation and upgrading of foreign trade, and tech- nological progress doesn＇t play an active role either. Thus, countermeasures and suggestions to speed up transformation and upgrading of Zhen- jiang＇s foreign trade were put forward.