基于随机决策的公交车辆滞站策略

摘要

Buses are affected by various random factors when running along the route , such as traffic conditions and passengers boarding and alighting .Therefore , the bus headways fluctuate strongly leading to low transit effi-ciency and service quality .Holding strategy can help to maintain the headway stability effectively .In consideration of the randomness of factors , the transit holding problem is described as a multi-stage stochastic decision process . Aiming to minimize the expected variance of bus headway deviation , the decision-making theory and dynamic pro-gramming are used to determine the optimal holding time when each bus arrives at the control point .Compared to other holding strategies through a case study , the proposed method can reduce the average waiting time and has ob-vious advantages on stability and anti-turbulence .%公交车辆在线路运行中受到多种随机因素的影响，如道路交通状况、站点乘客上下车等，导致同一线路公交车辆的车头时距产生较大波动，降低公交车辆的运载效率及服务质量。滞站策略能够有效保持公交车辆车头时距的稳定性。鉴于随机因素对公交线路的影响，将公交滞站问题看成多阶段随机决策过程，利用随机决策理论和动态规划的最优化原理，确定出每辆车到达控制点时的最佳滞留时间，使整个线路车头时距波动方差的期望值最小化，进而得到最佳公交车辆滞站决策方案。通过实例分析，随机决策滞站策略，能够显著降低乘客的平均等待时间，提高公交服务质量，且在稳定性及抗干扰性具有明显优势。