使用结构向量自回归模型对短期资本流动、人民币国际化与汇率、汇率预期之间关系进行实证检验.结果表明,汇率在合理均衡水平上的稳定有利于稳步推进人民币国际化和降低短期资本流动冲击;短期资本流动冲击国内金融市场,不利于汇率稳定与人民币国际化建设;人民币国际化渐进发展形成汇率升值预期,促进短期资本双向波动,对抵消汇率贬值及短期资本流出起到积极作用.因此建议促进汇率市场化改革,加强对短期资本流动的监控及稳步推进人民币国际化.%The structure of vector autoregressive model is applied to test the relationship between short-term capital flow,RMB internationalization and RMB exchange rate and exchange rate expectations. The results show that the sta-bility of the exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level steadily pushes forward RMB internationalization and re-duces the scale of short-term capital flows.Short-term capital flows strike the domestic financial market,which is un-favorable for the stability of exchange rate and the construction of RMB internationalization.The gradual development of RMB internationalization brings the expectation of RMB appreciation,which promotes two-way volatility of short-term capital and exerts positive effects on offsetting RMB devaluation and short-term capital outflows. So,this paper suggests promoting the reform of marketization of exchange rate,strengthing the short-term capital flows supervision, and steadily pushing forward RMB internationalization.
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