通胀背景下我国黄金价格与人民币汇率关系的实证检验

摘要

The exchange rate of RMB and the price of gold fit each other strongly when inflation is at abnormal state. After defining the background of high inflation by Chinese Consumer Price Index between 2009 and 2013,se-lecting the gold price of Shanghai stock exchange in 2011 Au( T+D)and the related data of RMB exchange rate a-gainst dollar as a sequence,this paper made an empirical analysis of the relationship between gold prices and RMB exchange rate through the establishment of error correction model,the results found that both have strong correla-tion. Therefore,we suggest that our country should seize the opportunity for revaluation,ensure the safety of the for-eign exchange market,at the same time,further improve China’s gold market,prevent two market price fluctuations continuously,so as to promote the stable development of Chinese economy.%在我国通胀凸显的背景下，黄金价格和人民币汇率在走势上一定程度往往表现出较强的关联性。本文利用2009年-2013年我国CPI指数界定通货膨胀背景，选取2011年上海交易所Au （ T＋D）黄金价格和同期人民币美元汇率的相关数据作为序列，通过建立误差修正模型对国内黄金价格与人民币美元汇率的关系进行了实证检验分析，结果发现二者具有较强的联动性，从而国家应当抓住汇改机遇，在确保外汇市场安全的同时进一步完善中国黄金市场，防范两市场价格连续波动，带动我国经济稳步发展。