中国电信业重组改革的效果与启示--基于反事实框架的实证分析

摘要

This paper measures the effect of the reform of the telecommunication industry restructuring in 2008 with a counterfactual framework,in the view of both economic efficiency and consumer welfare.The empirical results show that the reorganization of the telecommunication industry in 2008 significantly improves the welfare of consumers,but not significantly improves the economic efficiency,and the reorganization of the telecommunication industry achieves only partial success. Although it breaks the monopoly in business,the market is more concentration.Thus,it is only possible to improve the economic efficiency of the telecommunication industry by both reducing the market concentration and enforcing the competition.%本文通过构建反事实框架，分别从电信业经济效率和消费者福利的角度测度2008年电信业重组改革的效果。结果表明，2008年电信业重组改革虽然显著提高了消费者福利，但是对电信业经济效率并没有显著影响。可见2008年的电信业重组改革仅取得了部分成功，打破业务垄断所带来的成果在一定程度上被市场集中度的提高所抵消。只有在打破业务垄断的基础上，降低电信业市场集中度、强化竞争，才有可能提高电信业的经济效率。