中国稻谷生产的重心演变路径及偏移分析

摘要

Movement path and offset distance of the planting area, production, yield per unit gravity centre was studied by using paddy planting area, production and yield per unit of 31 provinces (cities,autonomous regions) data from 1949 to 2009. The results displayed that: (1) the gravity centre of paddy planting area and production has been moving to northeast from 1949 to 2009. (2) The track of paddy yield per unit gravity centre moved to east before 1970's and move back after that in the north-south direction; In the east-west direction, the range movement of paddy yield per unit gravity centre fluctuated rise-decline between about 33-34° N. (3) By comparing the offset distance of gravity centre, the variation of paddy yield per unit gravity centre was the largest, followed by the yield every year, while the excursion distance of paddy plant area was the least; by comparing the offset direction, the years of moving to the northeast and southwest more than move to the southeast and northwest, it indicated that the imbalance of paddy production in the northeast and southwest was more senous, (4) Plant area and production of paddy change faster in the south-north direction than the east-west direction, while the paddy yield per unit change faster in the east-west direction than the south-north direction.%本文利用1949-2009年全国31个省(市,自治区)稻谷种植面积、总产量及单产资料,分析全国稻谷种植面积重心、总产量重心以及单产重心的移动轨迹、偏移距离等.结果表明:(1)1949-2009年,稻谷种植面积重心,总产量重心,整体上均呈现出向东北方向移动的趋势.(2)稻谷单产重心偏移轨迹从东西方向来看,20世纪50.60年代先向东偏移,此后逐渐向西回归;从南北方向上来看,单产重心呈现渡动上升、下降趋势,大约在33°N -34°N之问移动.(3)从重心总偏移距离来看,种植面积最小.总产量次之,单产最大:从偏移方向来看,三者均是向东北.西南方向偏移的年份居多,说明稻谷生产东北.西南方向的发展不平衡状态较西北、东南方向的严重.(4)稻谷种植面积和总产量在南北方向上的动态变化相对东西向的变化剧烈,而单产则是东西向的变化比南北向的变化剧烈.