基于偏离-份额分析法的中国羊毛产量结构与竞争效益分析

摘要

Based on shift-share analysis, this paper conducts an empirical study on the advantage and beneift of the growth, structure and competition of the production of wool, ifne wool, semi-ifne wool and coarse wool in China’s 26 wool producing provinces during 1991-2013. Results show that, there are signiifcant differences among wool producing provinces in terms of the advantage and beneift of growth, structure and competition of wool production. Dominant areas of the production of fine wool, semi-fine wool and coarse wool are different. The highlighted comprehensive advantages of coarse wool production in main ifne wool producing provinces lead to more serious situation of local ifne wool production. In order to ensure the stable development of domestic ifne wool industry and reduce the shocks of imported foreign wool on domestic wool market, great attention should be paid to the evolution of the structure and competition advantage of wool production in wool producing provinces, and great efforts should be made to remodel the structure and competitive beneift of ifne wool production.%基于偏离-份额分析法对我国26个羊毛生产省市1991-2013年羊毛以及细羊毛、半细羊毛和粗羊毛生产的增长、结构、竞争方面的优势和效益进行了实证研究。结果表明：各省市羊毛生产在增长、结构和竞争方面的优势和效益存在显著差异；细羊毛、半细羊毛和粗羊毛生产的优势区域有所不同，其中细羊毛主产省市的粗羊毛发展全面优势凸显，导致细羊毛生产形势越发严峻。为确保国内细羊毛产业稳定发展和缓解外国羊毛进口对国内羊毛市场冲击，我国必须充分正视羊毛生产省市的羊毛结构和竞争优势演变，重塑细羊毛结构和竞争效益，促进细羊毛生产发展。