光伏发电的出力和负荷的不确定性给电力系统经济调度提出了新要求.针对光伏出力和负荷难以准确预测的特性,基于可信性理论引入模糊变量,并将光伏出力和负荷用模糊参数表示;用模糊约束取代传统确定性约束,建立含梯形模糊变量的功率平衡和正负旋转备用容量的模糊机会约束模型.采用清晰等价类的方法将模糊约束转换为确定性约束,提出用简化的粒子群优化算法求解模型.算例分析验证了所提模型和算法的有效性.%Photovoltaic power generation has significant benefits of energy saving and emission reduction. It's difficult and uncertain to predict PV output and load accurately. The PV output is mainly influenced by the factors such as light, temperature and so on. These uncertainties have raised new requirements for economic power dispatching environment. According to the characteristics that it is difficult to predict photovoltaic power and load, fuzzy variables were introduced based on credibility theory and PV output and load were represented by fuzzy parameters;used fuzzy constraints to replace the traditional deterministic constraints and established fuzzy chance constrained models, containing power balance and positive and negative rotation reserve capacity which all considering trapezoidal fuzzy variable. The fuzzy constraints were transformed into deterministic constraints by using the method of equivalent conversion. In addition, a simplified particle swarm optimization algorithm is proposed to solve the optimal model. The effectiveness of the proposed model and algorithm is verified by case study.
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