改进专家群决策方法的风电机组故障风险评价研究

摘要

针对风电机组故障风险定量分析困难,评价过程主观性强的问题,提出了一种改进的专家群决策方法.首先,采用拟优一致判断矩阵法保证各个专家判断矩阵的一致性;其次,利用几何平均法(GMM)完成专家组矩阵的权重划分工作;最后,将灰色关联度方法与层次分析法(AHP)相结合,对各个专家组权重进行合理调整,形成针对风电机组设备故障风险的评价模型.经过实例验证,此方法能较为准确地对机组故障风险进行定量分析,同时提高故障风险评价过程的可行性与客观性.%Aiming at the problem that wind turbine fault risk quantitative evaluation is difficult, and its subjective evaluation is strong,an improved expert group decision-making method is proposed. Firstly,the method of quasi-optimal consistent judgment matrix can guarantee the judgment matrixs' consistency. Secondly,by utilizing the geometric mean method,the weights of experts' matrixs can be made out. Finally, conbining gray relational degree and analytic hierarchy process,the weights of experts' matrixs are adjusted, then the model of wind turbine fault risk estimates is established.The experimental results that the method can achieve equipment fault risk quantitative evaluation more accurate. At the same time, the method improved the objectivity and feasibility of the evaluate process.