基于AAHP-GRAP的城际铁路建设项目经济风险评价

摘要

在不确定因素导致建设项目偏离复杂系统预期经济目标的可能的基础上，风险识别对于城际铁路建设项目的风险管理至关重要。为了对铁路建设项目进行风险控制，建立城际铁路建设项目经济风险评估指标体系，提出一种基于逆层次分析法( AAHP)和灰色关联分析方法( GRAP)相结合而形成的综合性评价方法。然后运用AAHP-GRAP新模型对新建兰州至中川城际铁路建设项目的经济风险因素进行评估，从而得出科学、合理、可靠的结论，对建设兰州至中川城际铁路项目的风险控制具有重要意义。%In view of the uncertain factors resulting in the deviation of complex system project from the expected economic goals, economic risk evaluation plays an important role in managing risks in intercity railway construction projects. This paper puts forward a kind of inverse analytic hierarchy process ( AAHP ) combined with grey relational analysis method ( GRAP ) to create a new comprehensive evaluation method. The new AAHP and GRAP model is employed to evaluate the economic risks in the construction of intercity railway from Lanzhou to Zhongchuan to reach reasonable and reliable conclusions, which is significant to bring such risks under control.