基于模糊网络分析法的城际铁路建设项目风险评价研究

摘要

鉴于城际铁路建设项目面临的风险种类较多、关系复杂,风险因素之间相互依赖、相互影响,而且许多风险因素还存在风险程度难以精确描述、边界不清晰等问题,利用模糊评判理论和网络分析法,构建了城际铁路建设项目风险评价指标体系和评价模型,并结合具体案例,阐述了模糊网络分析法在城际铁路建设项目风险评价中的应用,为有效控制项目风险提供决策参考.%As the risks in inter - city railway construction projects are various and of complex relationship, many risk factors are complex and mutual dependence and mutual influence. What' s more,many risk factors have problems like difficulty in accurate description of risks degree and unclear borders. Methods combining fuzzy evaluation theory and network analysis were utilized to establish risk evaluation system and evaluation model, and to completely state application of fuzzy ANP in project risk evaluation by taking a certain example, which shall provide decision reference for effectively controlling risks of inter - city railway construction project.