城际轨道交通旅客票价与客流量敏感性分析模型

摘要

Intercity rail transit ticket prices,the key sensitive factors affecting passenger flow,are related to the accuracy of the prediction.This paper provides a model based on equilibrium price sensitivity analysis method in order to make clear the relationship between the intercity rail transit ticket price and passenger flow.The utility function is established through analysis of the average operation time,cost and other influence factors to calculate the utility value.According to the equi-librium flow model of passenger flow,we can get the passenger flow of all kinds of transportation under the equilibrium traf-fic.Thereby,the sensitivity analysis model is used to get the relationship between the traffic and the travel fares in different modes of transport.In the end,Hangzhou-Shaoxing intercity rail transit is taken for example to analyze the sensitivity of the price.The research results show that the model and the algorithm have the higher reliability.%城际轨道交通票价作为影响客流大小的关键敏感性因素，关系到客流预测的准确性。为明确城际轨道交通票价与客流的关系，本文提供一种基于均衡模型的票价敏感分析方法，通过对平均运行时间、花费价格及其他影响因素分析，建立效用函数，计算效用值；依据客流均衡配流模型，得到各类交通方式均衡状态下客流量；在此基础上，利用灵敏度分析模型得到不同方式出行票价与客流量的关系；最后以杭绍城际轨道交通线为例进行票价敏感性分析，研究结果表明，该模型与算法具有较高的可靠性。