参照系统负荷预测的母线负荷预测修正方法

摘要

由于母线负荷预测结果的精确度相对系统负荷预测较低,提出了一种参照系统负荷预测值的母线负荷预测值修正方法.先根据母线负荷预测值之和与系统负荷预测值之间的差值确定需要修正的负荷点,再选择该点临近的连续数点系统负荷组成曲线,寻找系统负荷的相似曲线,对应相似日的各母线负荷组成样本、各样本修正值的期望和方差决定修正后的各母线负荷值的范围,采用最小二乘逼近建立二次规划问题,最后利用LINGO软件求解.算例表明了该方法从整体上提高了母线负荷预测的准确率.%As the accuracy of bus load forecasting is lower than that of load forecasting of power system, a revision method of bus load forecasting based on the system load forecasting is proposed. First, according to the difference between the sum of bus load forecasting and the system load forecasting, the load points in need of revision are determined. The successive load points near them are chosen to form curves. In search of the similar curves of bus load, the respective bus loads of corresponding days are taken as samples. The expectation and variance of the sample correction value determine the range of revised value of the bus load. Using the least square approximation, the revision method is turned into quadratic programming problem solved by LINGO. The example demonstrates that the method can raise accuracy rate of the bus load forecasting as a whole.