针对风力发电、光伏发电和负荷的不确定性问题,引入预测误差的不确定性.基于不确定规划理论,提出了一种考虑风光荷预测误差的电力系统经济优化调度模型.首先分析了风电、光伏以及负荷预测误差的不同概率分布特性,由于其出力特性各不相同,分别采用模糊随机变量和随机变量处理.在此基础上,综合考虑环境污染成本和风光荷出力成本等目标,并采用基于层次分析法的模糊综合多目标处理策略进行处理.根据所建模型,提出了基于混合模拟的进化算法进行求解,算例结果分析表明了所建模型的合理性和有效性.%To deal with the uncertainties of wind power,solar energy and load,the uncertainties of prediction error is introduced,and an optimal model of economic dispatch of power system based on uncertain programming theory is pro?posed,in which the prediction error of wind power,solar energy and load is considered. Firstly,different probabilistic distribution characteristics of wind power,solar energy and load are analyzed. Because of their different characteristics, fuzzy variable and random variable are employed respectively. On the basis of the above analysis,environmental pollut?ant cost and the output cost of wind power,solar energy and load are comprehensively considered,and a multi-objec?tive processing strategy of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation based on analytic hierarchy process is applied. A mixed simu?lation evolutionary algorithm is applied to solve the model based on economic dispatch. The results show the rationality and effectiveness of the proposed model.
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