基于FTA的不锈钢管壳式换热器失效模型安全评价分析

摘要

FTA( fault tree analysis) is an effective tool of fault diagnosis and reliability analysis.The fail-ure model of stainless shell and tube heat exchanger was established based on the failure case-studies. Then ,system reliability was studied by qualitative and quantitative analysis of this model and the key parts of the system were pointed out.Moreover,the failure probability of failure model was calculated on stain-less shell and tube heat exchangers which were used for 5 years.The result showed that good agreement of failure probability was obtained between failure model and statistical samples.%故障树分析( FTA)是进行故障诊断和可靠性分析的有效手段. 在不锈钢管壳式换热器失效案例统计和分析的基础上,建立不锈钢管壳式换热器失效FTA模型,对模型定性分析、定量计算分析系统可靠性,找出系统关键环节. 以服役5年的不锈钢管壳式换热器为例,采用模型计算出的失效概率与实际样本统计值基本吻合.