为了探明叶尔羌河—喀什噶尔河三角洲绿洲土地利用结构变化规律及其归因,以研究区Landsat遥感分类数据、水文和气象数据、社会经济数据为主要数据源,综合运用动态度、时间序列追踪以及MK趋势检验等方法,探寻土地利用结构的变化过程和流向及其影响因素.结果表明,1)近22年,研究区土地利用类型变化显著,其中,城镇用地、植被和湿地面积分别增加240.09、3 908.22和539.73 km2;水域和未利用地面积分别减少464.60和4 223.44 km2;各土地利用类型后10年的变化速度均大于前10年的变化速度;2)土地利用类型随时间的变化轨迹结果显示,研究区66.22％的土地利用类型未发生变化,其中稳定性最强的是未利用地,然后依次为植被、城镇用地、水域和湿地;3)在22年内,研究区的气温呈上升趋势,并达到显著水平;相对湿度呈下降趋势,达显著水平;降水量呈波动式减少趋势,未达到显著水平;人口和GDP呈不断增长趋势,但不显著;气候的暖干化、人口及GDP的急剧增长在某种程度上导致研究区的城镇用地和植被面积的增加以及水域和未利用地面积的减少.%Land use/Cover Change (LUCC) is one of the hot topics in global change research.In order to understand the rules of LUCC structural change and its attributions in the Yarkant—Kashgar River Delta oasis,this study explored the change process,direction and attribution mechanism of LUCC by methods of change trajectory,dynamic degree and transfer matrix integration of Landsat data,hydrological data,metrological data,and socio-economic data of Yarkant—Kashgar River delta oasis area.The research results showed that:1) the land cover changed over 22 years of research;evidently,the urban land,vegetation and wetland areas increased about 240.09,3 908.22,and 539.73 km2,respectively,while water and unused land areas decreased by 464.60 and 4 223.44 km2,respectively.The rate of change in land cover in the latter 10 years was greater than the rate of change in the previous 10 years.2) The results of change trajectory analysis demonstrated that 66.22％ of land use type did not change;the most stable land cover types are layland,followed by vegetation,urban land,water,and wetlands.3) During the 22 years of research,temperature showed an increasing trend,and reached a significant level;the relative humidity was shown to decrease,and also reached a significant level;precipitation fluctuation was shown to decrease,but did not reach a significant level;population and GDP were shown to increase,but not significantly;the warming and drying of climate,and the rapid growth of population and GDP,to some extent,lead to the increase of urban land and vegetation area and the decrease of water and desert land in the study area.
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