目的：检测口腔颌面外科医师对其手术所耗时间进行预测和评估的准确性。方法由三名资深口腔颌面外科医师对其所实施各类口腔颌面外科手术（100例）所耗时间进行预测，并将预测值与实际耗时进行比较，复查手术记录，总结分析原因。结果在100例手术中，预测准确的占32％，预测超时的占38％，预测不足的为30％。在预测超时的38例中，10例为颌骨骨折切开复位内固定术和唇腭裂手术及腮腺良性肿瘤切除术，8例为正颌外科手术。30例预测不足的手术中，7例为正颌外科手术，8例为骨折开放复位术。32例预测准确的病例中，7例为多牙拔除或阻生第三磨牙拔除术，5例为关节镜下颞下颌关节松解和灌注术。结论对于口腔外科手术耗时的预测和评估准确性不高，口腔颌面外科医师应对干扰预测的各项混杂因素进行分析以提高其预测准确性。%Objective To investigate the accuracy of time estimation in an operation performed by oral and maxillofacial sur -geons (OMSs).Methods Three experienced OMSs predicted their operating times in various operations ,and then these predictions were compared with the actual times .The operative reports were reviewed to summarize possible reasons .Results In the 100 cases an-alyzed,the correct times were 32%,overestimated times were 38%and underestimated times were 30%.In the 38 overestimated cases , 10 cases were involved in multiple tooth extractions or removal of impacted third molars ,and 8 cases were involved in orthognathic sur-gery.In the 30 underestimated cases ,7 were involved in orthognathic surgery and 8 were involved in the open reduction of fractures .The 32 accurate estimated cases included 7 cases of multiple tooth extractions or impacted third molar removal and 5 cases of arthroscopic temporomandibular joint lysis and lavage .Conclusion Although operating times need to be used for scheduling purposes ,they can be highly unpredictable .Surgeons need to constantly analyze their predictions for confounding factors in order to improve the accuracy .
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