基于AHP-DEA模型的电网规划方案综合评判决策

摘要

针对电网规划方案综合评判决策的复杂性以及层次分析法（AHP）的主观性过强和数据包络法（DEA）无法体现决策者偏好的缺陷，提出了一种AHP和DEA相融合的方法。将该方法依据是否融合灰色关联度又分别建立两种模型。通过建立电网规划综合评判体系，运用两种模型对一个实际电网规划问题进行求解分析，计算结果与实际期望方案一致。在此基础上对模型进行容错性分析，分析表明融合灰色关联度的AHP-DEA模型相比其他模型具有较强的容错性能，在遭到非正常因素的干扰下仍能选出最优方案。%Regarding the complexity of the judgment for power system planning alternatives and the fact that analytic hierarchy process (AHP) has the strong subjective and data envelopment analysis (DEA) can not reflect the preference of decision makers, a method integrating AHP and DEA is proposed. The method is divided into two models whether grey relational method is fused. Meanwhile, two models are applied to a practical power system planning problem by establishing an evaluation system for power planning. It is showed that the calculation result is consistent with the expected result. On the basis, the fault-tolerant for the models is analyzed. It is found that the fault-tolerant of the model with the grey relational method is better than other methods. When the abnormal factors affect power system planning, the model with the grey relational method can still choose the optimal plan.