基于超短期负荷预测的Non-AGC与AGC协调控制策略研究

摘要

为了消纳大规模新能源并网给系统带来的随机性和波动性，针对Non-AGC机组与AGC机组调节速率的不同，给出Non-AGC与AGC协调控制策略。利用超短期负荷预测提前为Non-AGC机组制定发电计划，达到用Non-AGC分担AGC调解压力的目的。利用“波动窗”算法给出Non-AGC机组调节速率与调节时间的计算方法；利用CPS标准制定AGC机组调节策略，并考核AGC机组调节性能。利用该协调控制策略模拟山东电网运行情况并和现有调度模式在 AGC 调节容量、频率控制、ACE、CPS 指标等方面进行对比分析，结果表明，基于超短期负荷预测的Non-AGC与AGC协调控制策略是实用、有效的，既能维持良好电能质量又能消纳新能源并网的波动性。%In order to eliminate the randomness and fluctuation from new energy coalescing in grid in large-scale, and based on the difference of the adjustment rate between Non-AGC and AGC, the coordination and control strategy of Non-AGC and AGC is given. Using ultra-short-term load forecasting to work out the power generation plan of Non-AGC set in advance, by which to reduce the pressure of AGC through Non-AGC. “Swing window” algorithm is utilized to get the calculation method of adjustment rate and adjustment time of Non-AGC, and also CPS criterion is exploited to formulate the regulation strategy of AGC, and evaluate the adjusting performance of AGC. The grid operation in Shandong Province is simulated under this coordination and control strategy, and comparative analysis is conducted with the existing dispatching pattern in the aspects of AGC adjustment capacity, frequency control, and ACE, CPS indicators. The result shows that Non-AGC and AGC coordination and control strategy based on ultra short-term load forecasting is practical and effective, through which not only a good electric energy quality can be maintained, but the fluctuation from new energy coalescing in grid can be eliminated as well.