优化系数的NGM（1,1,k）模型在中长期电量预测中的应用

摘要

NGM(1,1,k)灰色模型预测电力系统中长期电量的精度较低，考虑增加一修正量对模型系数进行修正。按照拟合值与真实值的误差平方和最小来求解此修正量，并结合缓冲算子对原始电量数据进行处理，建立了优化系数的灰色电量预测模型。将改进灰色模型应用于两个地区的中长期电量预测中，预测结果表明，优化的灰色模型有效地提高了预测精度。%It haslower accuracy in predicting mid-long term electricity consumption of power system by using NGM (1,1, k) gray model. For that a method of adding a correction value to revise the model coefficients is proposed. The least sum of square error between the fitting values and the actual values is used to solve the correction value, the raw data is processed by using the buffer operator, and the improved gray electricity consumption forecasting model is established. The improved model is used to forecast the mid-long term electricity consumption in two regions and the forecasting results show that it effectively enhances the prediction accuracy.