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A Grey NGM(11 k) Self-Memory Coupling Prediction Model for Energy Consumption Prediction

机译:能耗预测的灰色NGM(11k)自记忆耦合预测模型

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摘要

Energy consumption prediction is an important issue for governments, energy sector investors, and other related corporations. Although there are several prediction techniques, selection of the most appropriate technique is of vital importance. As for the approximate nonhomogeneous exponential data sequence often emerging in the energy system, a novel grey NGM(1,1, k) self-memory coupling prediction model is put forward in order to promote the predictive performance. It achieves organic integration of the self-memory principle of dynamic system and grey NGM(1,1, k) model. The traditional grey model's weakness as being sensitive to initial value can be overcome by the self-memory principle. In this study, total energy, coal, and electricity consumption of China is adopted for demonstration by using the proposed coupling prediction technique. The results show the superiority of NGM(1,1, k) self-memory coupling prediction model when compared with the results from the literature. Its excellent prediction performance lies in that the proposed coupling model can take full advantage of the systematic multitime historical data and catch the stochastic fluctuation tendency. This work also makes a significant contribution to the enrichment of grey prediction theory and the extension of its application span.
机译:能源消耗预测是政府,能源部门投资者和其他相关公司的重要问题。尽管有几种预测技术,但是选择最合适的技术至关重要。针对能量系统中经常出现的近似非均匀指数数据序列,提出了一种新的灰色NGM(1,1,k)自记忆耦合预测模型,以提高预测性能。它实现了动态系统自记忆原理与灰色NGM(1,1,k)模型的有机集成。自我记忆原理可以克服传统灰色模型对初始值敏感的缺点。在这项研究中,通过使用所提出的耦合预测技术,将中国的总能源,煤炭和电力消耗用于示范。结果表明,与文献结果相比,NGM(1,1,k)自记忆耦合预测模型具有优越性。其优异的预测性能在于,所提出的耦合模型可以充分利用系统的多次历史数据,并能捕捉到随机波动趋势。这项工作也为灰色预测理论的丰富及其应用范围的扩展做出了重大贡献。

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