广西电力负荷特性分析预测

摘要

Guangxi statistic data for power load over the last few years is unobtainable due to the complicated management mechanism, which makes comprehensive analysis and forecast of its load characteristics even more difficult. Based on enormous in⁃formation relating to power consumption in history, load characteris⁃tics of Guangxi in the past is evaluated, considering influence of the load beyond control of Guangxi power grid. Growing trend of the load characteristics in Guangxi as well as different factors contributing to it is investigated in detail so that load characteristics of Guangxi Zhuang autonomous region during the 12th Five⁃Year Plan period are fore⁃casted. Comparison is made between load characteristics of Guangxi and neighboring Guangdong province to further demon⁃strate the influences of different factors. The proposed scheme for load characteristics in future would lay a good foundation for stud⁃ies of generation expansion planning and peak⁃shaving problems in Guangxi.%　　受供电管理体制约束，广西全社会口径历史负荷数据获取困难，加大了全区负荷特性分析预测的难度。本文在收集大量历史用电资料的基础上，综合考虑非统调负荷对统调电网负荷曲线的修正作用，分析广西全社会历史负荷特性及变化趋势。结合负荷特性影响因素分析，对广西“十二五”期间全社会负荷特性进行预测，并与相邻广东省用电负荷特性进行对比分析，预测的全社会口径负荷特性可为全区电源规划及调峰研究等提供依据。