两岸贸易对台湾劳动力就业的影响效应--基于台湾25个制造业面板数据的实证分析

摘要

This paper makes an empirical study of the impact of cross-strait trade on the employment in Taiwan based on a sample of 25-industry panel data from 1992 -2011 . We firstly estimate the whole employment impact of manufacture product trade, and then estimate sectoral employment impacts of manufacture product trade. From the result of the whole industry estimate,we find that export has a positive impact on employment, but import has an unobvious negative effecton employment. But the result of sectoral estimate shows that there are great differences in theimpacts of export and import on employment among sectors. In addition, we introduce Taiwaninvestment as a moderator variable in order to exam the impacts of manufacture product trade, andthe result shows that relationship between cross-strait trade and Taiwan investment is the key factorsinfluencing the employment impacts of cross-strait trade.%本文采用1992～2011年台湾25个制造业的面板数据对两岸贸易的就业效应进行实证研究。首先就整体制造业估计了台湾进出口大陆对岛内就业的影响；然后分行业类型检验了两岸贸易的就业效应，以考察台湾进出口大陆对就业影响的行业差异。整体制造业估计结果表明，台湾出口大陆对岛内就业有显著正向影响，自大陆进口则无明显影响；分行业类型估计结果表明，台湾进出口大陆对岛内就业的影响存在明显的行业差异。另外，引入台商投资作为调节变量，进一步探讨两岸贸易对台湾就业的影响，研究显示台商投资与两岸贸易的关系是两岸贸易对就业影响程度和方向的关键因素。