基于GIS与生态位模型的工业用地判识与优化模拟--以国家级滁州经济技术开发区实证

摘要

The problem of development zone land use has been the research emphasis and difficulty. As the industrial land for leading land types of development zone, influenced the overall scale of land use quantity and space layout. Based on ArcGIS 30 x 30 meters grid method and ecological niche suitability evaluation model, Chuzhou national economic and technical development zone as typical study object, the selection of elevation, slope, road radiance, ecological maintenance, industrial land, land acquisition demolition of 6 indicators, identifies of industrial land space development suitability, highest, higher, in general, low, low respectively accounted for 34.74%, 22.18%, 25.61%, 13.63%, 3.84%, a higher value and more close to 60%, the overall regional suitable for industrial land development. using of SPSS trend regression analysis, selection of logarithmic model to predict the future industrial land demand, and with the development zone industrial land development suitability analysis of attribute hook, simulation industrial land of development zone space layout, induction of extensional expansion, industry oriented, efficient coordination of three kinds of land use patterns, the proposed scheme of specific measures to optimize the layout, to promote development zone of optimization industrial upgrading and rational-efficient land resources use.%开发园区用地问题一直是研究重难点，作为开发园区主导用地类型的工业用地，影响并决定着开发园区整体用地规模数量及空间布局。基于ArcGIS的30米×30米网格法及生态位适宜度评价模型，将国家级滁州经济技术开发区作为典型实证对象，遴选高程、坡度、公路辐射度、生态保养度、工业用地、征地拆迁等6项指标，判识工业用地空间开发适宜度，高、较高、一般、较低、低占比分别34.74%、22.18%、25.61%、13.63%、3.84%，较高值及以上接近60%，区域总体适宜工业用地开发；运用SPSS趋势回归分析法，选择对数模型预测未来工业用地需求量，并与开发区工业用地开发适宜度属性挂钩分析，模拟开发区工业用地空间布局演变；归纳外延拓展型、工业主导型、高效协调型等三种用地模式基础上，提出用地布局优化的具体方案措施，促进园区产业优化升级及土地资源合理高效利用。